Where do the Bears go after 3-14…

              Its Feb 3rd, 2023 and the Chicago Bears are sitting in a unique position that very few franchises have been in before. Their Franchise QB on the roster, the #1 Overall Draft pick and the most Salary Cap Space in the entire NFL.

              The 2022 season is all but over with Super Bowl LVII just a week away. We have roughly a month following the Championship Game until the new league year starts (March 15 at 4pm Eastern) which has things like the Negotiating Period leading up to the day and then the NFL Draft starting April 27th.

              So what is happening with the Chicago Bears?

The Bears hold the #1 overall pick in the draft because they finished the 2022 regular season with a league worst 3-14 record.  But how did they get there? Under new Head Coach, Matt Eberflus (hired Jan 2022), the Bears traded away their star pash rusher Khalil Mack to the Chargers (Mar 2022), All-Pro DE Robert Quinn to the Eagles (Oct 2022) and All-Pro LB Roquan Smith to the Ravens (Nov 2022). Moving those 3 big pieces gave them a slew of draft capital, freed up Cap Space but also depleted their defense.

              Bears Defense Rankings 2022 (per NFL.com):

• Pass Yds – 18th

• Pass TDs – 13th

• INTs – 17th

• Sacks – 32nd

• Rush Yds – 31st

• Rush TDs – 32nd

• Points allowed – 32nd

              The unique position that the Bears are in, not often seen, is that they not only hold the #1 overall pick in the Draft, but they have the most Salary Cap space available ($98.6M) AND the Bears already have their young Franchise QB (Justin Fields).

              Justin Fields had a breakout season in 2022 as he led all QBs in rushing yards (1,143 at 7.1 per carry), ran for 8 TDs, threw for 2,242 yards & 17 TDs. On the down side, he threw 11 INTs and was sacked 55 times (tied for most in the NFL). With those stats, the Bears led the NFL in Rushing Yds & Yards per Carry but fell middle of the pack or worse in almost every other category.  You can point to a lot of reasons as to why the offense struggled to do anything outside of running the ball. Lack of Wide Receiver skill. Play Calling. Poor Offensive Line play. Blocking Scheme. Penalties.

              No matter the reason you put the offense struggles on, there is upside looking forward.  The Bears made a trade with the Pittsburgh Steelers to acquire WR Chase Claypool. Claypool (AKA; Mapletron) is a big body, physical and athletic WR that excels at making plays once he has the ball.  The Bears utilized him very little after the trade was made but one can only assume that he and Fields will build chemistry this offseason.

              So with a lackluster passing game and a porous defense, the Bears need a lot of work to compete for a playoff spot in 2023. The way it stands, they are not built for it but between the draft and Cap Space, they can completely reinvigorate this dull franchise.

              #1 Overall Pick

              I mentioned before that the Bears have the #1 Overall Pick in this upcoming NFL Draft AND that they already have their young Franchise QB. By having this pick, the Bears COULD use that pick to completely change their trajectory. They could make their pick by taking a game-changing DT (Jalen Carter), a top-notch Edge rusher (Will Anderson Jr) or a dynamic play-making RB (Bijan Robinson). With not needing a QB at this spot, their best value is going to be to make a trade with someone that NEEDS Bryce Young or CJ Stroud.  The Houston Texans are sitting at pick #2 and going into 2023, the Texans have just 1 QB on their active roster (Davis Mills).  New Texans HC, DeMeco Ryans, has already addressed this by saying that the Texans need to add to their QB roster.  That could very well be with the #2 pick.  If the Bears do not trade their pick, the Texans can have any QB in the draft.  If the Bears trade their pick away, the Texans will have to play this by ear.

              What could the Bears get in return for the #1 Overall Pick?

              A haul.  Now, this isn’t a simple “3 firsts” type of scenario (a la Sonny Weaver Jr in Draft Day). Each year, draft picks carry different weight based on who is available, what a team needs, which players are Free Agents, etc... Lets look at who might need a QB going into 2023.

• Houston Texans* (mentioned previously)

• Indianapolis Colts

• Carolina Panthers

• New York Jets (?)

• Las Vegas Raiders

• Washington Commanders

• New Orleans Saints

• Tennessee Titans

• Atlanta Falcons (?)

• Tampa Bay Bucs

• Seattle Seahawks*

                    ( * - Teams with 2 first round picks)

Not every team on this list will have a new starting QB in 2023 but Indy, Las Vegas, Washington, New Orleans, Atlanta, Carolina & Tampa (due to Brady retirement) appear that they will.  A sleeper in this list is the Seattle Seahawks as there is no clarity on whether Geno Smith will return to Seattle (as of today) and the Seahawks have 2 first round picks in 2023 (#5 via Broncos & #20). Pairing their 2 first round picks another early 2024 pick and WR Tyler Lockett, could allow Seattle to leapfrog Houston and have carte blanche in the draft.  Whether Seattle would even consider making this offer rests entirely on Geno Smith.

              We could also see a team such as Tampa Bay, coming fresh off the Tom Brady retirement, to offer a package of players and draft picks. Chris Godwin, Tristin Wirfs, the #19 pick in 2023 and a 2024 2nd round pick would be a great starting point that might be able to get the deal done. This would give Chicago a proven 1,000yd WR that they can easily extend, a young talented OT on a rookie deal, along with the ability to draft top end rookies still this year and next. This trade improves the offense immediately and gives the Bears a chance to improve the defense with the #19 pick as well as leaves a ton of Cap Space to sign free agents. At #19, the Bears could likely snag someone like EDGE, Nolan Smith or LB Drew Sanders.

              Another scenario sees the Colts jump over their rival Texans by making a trade in which they give up the #4 pick, their 1st in 2024 & WR Alec Pierce.  This may seem like less in return than the Tampa deal but trading back just 3 picks gives the Bears a lot more in return as they still get a solid, young WR on a cheap rookie deal but they can still make a top 5 pick this year and get almost anybody they want (assuming picks #1 & #2 are QB).  This play also gives the Bears a chance to add more picks/players by trading back an extremely valuable pick.

              Assuming Bryce Young & CJ Stroud go 1-2, the Cardinals won’t be taking a QB at #3 and likely will use this pick to improve their roster instead of trading it away.  This puts Carolina in a prime position to surpass their division rival, Atlanta, as well as keep Seattle from potentially landing Will Levis at #5. The Panthers could use the #9 pick, their 2024 first round pick and pick #60 (2nd round from 49ers) to move up for Levis.

              If the Bears are able to navigate those two trades, they could end up with:

• WR Alec Pierce

• Colts 2024 First Round Pick

• Panthers 2023 First Round Pick (#9)

• Panthers 2024 First Round Pick

• Panthers 2023 Second Round Pick (#60 from 49ers)

At the ninth pick in the draft, the Bears could address their OL (OTs Paris Johnson, Broderick Jones or Peter Skoronski likely all available) or their DL/LBs with some of the best talent in the draft (DL/EDGE Myles Murphy, EDGEs Tyree Wilson/Kelon White or LBs Trenton Simpson/Drew Sanders).  This also could give them another trade play from here and continue to rack up future draft picks.

              With having almost $100 MILLION in available Salary Cap space, the Bears will likely be extremely active in the Free Agent Market.  They don’t need to worry about the QB position so don’t expect anything in terms of “Jimmy G is talking to Chicago” or something similar. 

Free Agent signings the Bears could/should make:

• DT Javon Hargrave to a 3+ year deal north of $50M (roughly $20M per year)

• CB Jamel Dean to a 5 year deal around $75M ($14M per year)

• OT Jawaan Taylor to a 4 year deal around $50M ($13M per year)

• OG Ben Powers to a 4 year deal around $35M ($8M per year)

• WR Michael Thomas to a 2 year deal around $20M ($8M per year)

Those 5 signings would account for just over half of the available Salary Cap space the Bears have.  Adding a few more pieces along with extending current players, they could leave themselves approximately $10-15M for emergency situations or for 2024 rollover.

              The Bears could turn from worst record in 2022, to Wild Card Playoff spot in 2023 if they play their cards right.  Nailing the 2023 NFL Draft will be essential to that turnaround.

- Ryan Samuelson