Is the Bill Belichick era of dominance over in New England?
For two decades we watched an era in New England that had just two consistent names. Tom Brady & Bill Belichick. Over the last 10 years, the debate of whether Brady was nothing more than a “Belichickian-system” Quarterback was put to bed when Brady won a Super Bowl with the Buccaneers. In stepped Mac Jones with the 15th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. As a rookie, Mac Jones led the Patriots to a playoff berth (losing in the Wild Card round to the Bills, 47-17). Things are looking good for the Patriots future, right? Hold your horses.
Before we look at the Post-Tom-Brady era, lets take look into the Patriots history.
During the era of Patriots dominance in the NFL, outside of Tom Brady, there were only a few impactful “household names” on offense. Randy Moss (2-1/2 seasons), Rob Gronkowski (9 seasons), Julian Edelman (12 seasons) & Wes Welker (6 seasons). Belichick has always been good about finding under the radar players and getting the most out of them. He has also been great at being completely unreadable when it comes to which players he will utilize in a game. In the Belichick era, the Patriots were the hardest team to prepare for as they would hit you with players that you didn’t expect to make an impact. Combine that with a good Offensive Line and blocking scheme, that made their offense tough to stop.
Belichick’s success at being unreadable made his drafting through the years, look a lot better than it actually was. Usage of players on the defensive side of the ball would turn into All-Pro selections and Pro Bowls, only to let them walk in Free Agency or trade them for maximum return where the player would then struggle to make a similar impact.
One big thing that everyone talks about constantly is the “Belichick coaching tree.” The coaches that have worked under him to go on and coach elsewhere. There has not been a single coach from his system that has gone on to be a successful Head Coach in the NFL.
- Bill O’Brien
- Brian Flores
- Nick Saban
- Jim Schwartz
- Eric Mangini
- Josh McDaniels
- Matt Patricia
- Joe Judge
Just to name a few. The most successful was Bill O’Brien, who coached the Texans from 2014 to 2020 with a record of 52-48 in that span and was fired following week 4 of the 2020 season after starting the season 0-4. Josh McDaniels is in his 2nd stint as a Head Coach, now with the Raiders, after a disastrous 1-3/4 seasons with the Broncos in 2009-10 (fired after week 13 of 2010). Many would say McDaniels issues in Denver were his arrogance in his youth (33 years old) and believing he was the 2nd-coming of Bill Belichick. Reports out of Denver from those seasons were that McDaniels showed no respect to players or staff which turned into no respect reciprocated.
As mentioned earlier, the Belichick drafts were always pretty solidly used. He had a knack for getting the most out of his selections combined with bringing in key free agents that would work best in his systems. The past few seasons, that has not been the case. Many players since 2018 have been cut or traded away after failing to make any sort of impact at all. The players still on the roster from those drafts have mostly been less than stellar. Is that a sign of Belichick slipping in his GM role for seeing player skillset? Or maybe he is at a point in his career where he just wants players he can plug in that he doesn’t have to “coach up.”
Was Tom Brady actually the key piece in New England?
Since Tom Brady left the Patriots following the 2019 season and went to Tampa Bay, the Patriots have struggled at the QB position. Cam Newton, Brian Hoyer, Mac Jones & Bailey Zappe have combined for a 24-23 record. On top of that, the combined passing stats for the QBs have not seen more than 4100 passing yards or 24 touchdowns in any of those 3 seasons. 2022 does not appear to change that trend unless Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe have an unrealistically historic final 3 games. It is also noticeable that these QBs are not the type of QBs to elevate the level of play of the WR/TE players around them, one thing Tom Brady was excellent at. N’Keal Harry, Braxton Berrios, Devin Asiasi, Dalton Keene & Tyquan Thornton reads like a typical supporting cast of the 2000’s Brady era in which he would throw for 4200 yards and 30 TDs. Speaking of, the short list of players just mentioned, the only player as of writing this that is still on the Patriots roster is Thornton (2022 draft pick).
What else could be leading to the downfall of the Patriots? Coaching staff. As Belichick gets older (70 years old as of today), he is likely relying more on his staff. After failing in Head Coach rolls, Matt Patricia & Joe Judge both return to the fold in oddball rolls. Patricia is the Offensive Line coach but also a hybrid “Senior Football Advisor”. Joe Judge is the Quarterbacks Coach and also “Offensive Assistant”. What is so odd about that? Belichick, under a lot of media scrutiny, has not named anyone as his Offensive Coordinator/Play-Caller and instead, those two names have also shared in the duties. From inside the building there is probably a LOT more clarity than that but from the outside it appears to be a complete mess. For all the issues that surround Josh McDaniels, its clear that he did serve as a competent Offensive Coordinator for Bill as he came aboard the Patriots staff in 2001. Even if it wasn’t “Josh’s” offense, he was a stable voice in the staff that knew how to relay Belichick’s message.
If we see Bill Belichick return beyond the 2023 season, I would be surprised. I, personally, believe it would take a +12 win season and at least 2 playoff wins in 2023. Outside of that, he is already one of the most successful head coach in NFL history (297 wins) with just George Halas (318 wins) and Don Shula (328 wins) ahead of him BUT he has the Super Bowl Championships edge on both with 6 as a Head Coach. Its unlikely that we see Belichick ride off into the sunset with another Championship. Now the clock is ticking on when he walks away before he strings together too many underwhelming seasons, by his standards.
Ryan Samuelson
