The 2021 NFL is going to look very different.
With the recent news that caught absolutely nobody off guard, Deshaun Watson has requested a trade out of Houston. The 4th year QB has dealt with a lot since being drafted 12th overall out of Clemson. Everything really started to come to a head when his star Wide Receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, was traded to Arizona for pennies on the dollar during the 2020 off-season. Watson responded by leading the league in passing yards with 4,823 while also throwing a career best 33:7 TD to INT ratio. It was a career year for Watson and his week 17 game against the Houston rival Tennessee Titans was his final game as a Texan. Watson joins an usually large number of veteran Quarterbacks that will be on the move when the 2021 league year begins. With so many to discuss, its hard to decide where to start…
Matthew Stafford. Stafford recently requested a trade out of Detroit which may, or may not be, related to the hiring of new head coach “Motor City” Dan Campbell. Stafford has a lot of suitors already and there have been some rumors swirling that the San Francisco 49ers are the top fit. The question then becomes; Do the 49ers trade Jimmy G to the Lions or do they offer just draft picks? The 49ers hold the #12 overall pick. Is that enough to get Stafford?
Jimmy Garoppolo. Jimmy G has struggled to stay healthy since being traded to the 49ers in 2017. His only full season was 2019, in which he led the 49ers to the Super Bowl, losing to Kansas City. If the 49ers do make a move for Stafford without using Jimmy in the trade, the logical place for Jimmy to be traded to is back to the Patriots. Can Belichick work his magic without using his #15 overall pick to get the former Tom Brady protégé back to New England?
Tua Tagovailoa. There has been some talk over the past few weeks that a potential deal between the Dolphins and Texans could be struck to exchange Watson and Tua with the Dolphins surrendering another pick or ten along with Tua. If this deal is made, Houston could get a young QB and a boatload of draft picks in return. What I would also suggest to Houston with this deal, go sign Ryan Fitzpatrick too. Not to supplant Tua if he struggles but to help coach him up and then keep him on staff when he is ready to hang up his cleats.
Deshaun Watson. As mentioned above, a deal could be struck to send Watson to Miami. Watson appears to be in favor of this trade and he could thrive in South Beach. Miami is a team on the rise and a generational QB such as Watson could be the tipping point on the scale for locking in playoff spots each year versus being on the fringe.
Derek Carr. A betting man would put money on Carr being traded (or cut) this off-season. He carries a relatively low dead cap number if a trade cant be worked out but I don’t believe it will resort to that. Carr is likely to be traded to Chicago. Chicago is going to need a new QB since they aren’t resigning Trubisky. Carr fills that role and Chicago has the pieces and cap space to make it work.
Mitch Trubisky. “Biscuit” isn’t being traded or cut. He just isn’t being extended. The Bears declined his 5th year option so he is looking for a dance partner. There are a lot of suitors looking for a QB right now. Denver appears to be a good fit for him given their uncertainty with Drew Lock. Elway has been looking for a franchise QB, well, since he retired. The Broncos could sign Trubisky to a team friendly, incentive filled trial deal to start and then extend him if he is successful.
Jared Goff. Unspectacular. That’s the word I have heard linked to Goff’s play since being drafted #1 overall in 2016. Let me make this clear, he isn’t bad. But is he performing at the level that a #1 overall QB is expected to perform? No. We are going to see the Rams make a trade that sends Goff to Washington which will give the Rams the #19 overall pick to potentially draft LB Jabril Cox.
Tyrod Taylor. After suffering a punctured lung at the hands of a team doctor prior to week 2 of the 2020 season, Taylor never saw the field again for the Chargers. Now, he becomes an Unrestricted Free Agent. Former Chargers HC, Anthony Lynn is a big supporter of Taylor and if it wasn’t for the Chargers drafting Justin Herbert, Taylor would have resumed the starting QB role when healthy. Now Lynn is the OC in Detroit. Expect Taylor to sign with Detroit to be the starting QB.
Likely to stay put:
Carson Wentz. Wentz will likely stay put with the hiring of the new head coach Nick Sirianni. Nick was the OC in Indianapolis for the past 3 seasons. Do you see the connection here? He was the right-hand man to Frank Reich, who was the OC in Philadelphia during the most productive years of Carson’s young career. Lets play devil’s advocate for a moment though. If Wentz goes anywhere, the likelihood of rejoining his former OC in Indianapolis is high. Odds are, he stays in Philly this year.
Jameis Winston. With Drew Brees retiring, it would appear the Saints are primed to move with the Quarterbacks that they currently have rostered. The real question is, will it be Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston under center.
Ben Roethlisberger. It appears that Big Ben is willing to restructure his 2021 pay to stay with the team for the final year of his contract. Getting this deal done on a more “team friendly” pay scale could help solidify weapons for both offense and defense. Ben wants one more Super Bowl Ring before he walks away. This might be his last chance.
Dak Prescott. Dak is going to get paid. Maybe not the amount that he was chasing. Maybe not even this year. But “Jurrah” is NOT going to let Dak leave Dallas right now. Expect both Dak and Dalton to be wearing a Star on their helmets in 2021.
Sam Darnold. There is a lot of chatter on social media suggesting that the Jets trade Darnold and make a move to get Watson. There’s no reason for them to give up the #2 overall pick (plus 2-5 more picks) to get Watson. With Robert Saleh bringing his pal Mike LeFleur (brother of Green Bay HC Matt) from San Fran, I fully expect Darnold to stay with Gang Green and thrive. Ryan Tannehill 2.0 type of situation.
Matt Ryan. The Falcons cleaned house in terms of coaching staff and GM. In doing so, the newly hired HC Arthur Smith and OC Dave Ragone look to be impressed with Matt Ryan. All signs lead to the Falcons running with Ryan at QB in 2021. Whether that new relationship turns bitter after 2021 is up for debate but for now, Ryan stays in the ATL.
Marcus Mariota. Its no secret that Jon Gruden thinks the world of Marcus Mariota. Being able to land him last off-season on a 2 year, low risk deal with a $0 cap hit way out in 2021 was a no-brainer. He proved to be worth every penny when Carr was hurt and Mariota showed flashes of why he was the #2 overall pick in 2015.
Aaron Rodgers. MVP. Do I need to say anything beyond that? Rodgers made it very clear (via The Pat McAfee Show) that he would like to stay in Green Bay but his future isn’t up to him. After an MVP caliber season and leading the Packers to the NFC Championship game, Green Bay would be foolish if he isn’t back under center in 2021.
Teams that will draft a QB in the first round:
Jacksonville. With the #1 overall pick, new HC Urban Meyer is scratching his ticket to the Trevor Lawrence Lottery.
Carolina. The Panthers are facing the fact that Teddy B hasn’t panned out since signing him last off-season. The downside is the cap hit for Teddy. $22.9m if rostered or $20m in dead. It would appear Matt Rhule wants to move on from him so drafting Ohio State’s Justin Fields at #8 as the future is likely.
Indianapolis. Andrew Luck before the 2019 season and Philip Rivers after 2020. Two retirements at the QB position for the Colts in under 18 months. The Colts drafted Jacob Eason in 2020 with their 4th round pick. Seeing that the Colts have such a low-cost investment in Eason, it would make sense that they draft a QB here. The likely scenario is that they snag BYU QB Zach Wilson at #21 to compete against Eason.
No matter how many of these predictions come to fruition for the 2021 season, one thing is for certain, the league will look different. New faces in new places on a scale we haven’t seen before.
by Ryan Samuelson
