They Aren’t All Wins
A number of months back I wrote an article called “Knowing When to Sell” that I received a lot of great feedback on. I would call this article a continuation of that.
I’ve said this before, “there is no science to buying and selling cards.” Some free advice for you is that you shouldn’t listen to some “investor” or influencer on how to make money selling cards. Are there tips to helping you out? Absolutely! But by no means does anyone in the world have this down to a 100% fool-proof system except for the ones that run pump and dumps on unsuspecting followers. Why is there no fool-proof system? There are just too many variables involved for it. These are sports cards, which a majority of their value comes from the success or popularity of the player depicted.
I am asked by customers at every single card show I set up as a vendor, “who should I invest in?” or “what do you think of investing in ‘x player’?” First of all, I am 100% burnt out on the term “investment” due to the ongoing and wildly controversial conversation over whether sports cards are investments. Secondly, I suggest to them that if they want to be able to sell down the road for more than what they paid, look for players that aren’t the top names at that time. As an example, chasing Joe Burrow cards today with the intention of reselling for profit later is going to be less lucrative than buying Jordan Love, Jalen Hurts or Davis Mills. There is risk associated with buying any player but at least with lower cost to start, you have a lower risk with a much higher potential reward. You can use that analogy for any sport/player. I know often times, people want to chase the big name players; Mike Trout, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, LeBron James, etc…but the risk you run in the current state of the card pricing world is two-fold:
1. The difference in potential resale is much closer to the price you paid upfront.
2. The risk of prices declining below the price you paid is much greater.
So why chase the big name players? Exposure and ease of selling. I see people on social media every day pull the trigger on buying a $1000 card of a highly chased player only to sell that very same card less than 30 days later for very little profit (sometimes even at a loss). But the card sells rather quickly. It is a gamble on the value return.
So what affects cards the most for their value?
That’s not an easy question to answer but lets start with their stats. A player dominates the games they play, their value can often times climb, especially if they are making it on media highlight reels and being talked about. On the flip side, putting up less that top stats can hurt a players perceived card value. Even playing well but not being a stand-out can often lead to a decline in card prices because the player isn’t throwing 60+ yard TDs, dunking over a Center or hitting +400’ HRs twice a week. Another thing that can hurt a players value even if they are putting up big stats: not making the playoffs or getting knocked out of the playoffs early. A prime example of this is Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks getting eliminated from the 2021 NBA Playoffs in the first round, followed by a sharp decline of Luka prices. On the flip side, Giannis saw a rather large spike in value after the Bucks won the NBA Championship just a few weeks later.
So we know about stats and team success being key, what else? Sometimes its the team around the player. Yes, that can be the cause too. The inspiration for writing this came from stumbling upon my 2 Prizm Kyle Kuzma Silver RC BGS 9.5 in a box. I pulled them myself back in 2017 and had them graded. I could have sold them in 2018 for around $300-$350ea but I decided to hold them, thinking Kuzma was the future of the Lakers. Enter: LeBron James. LBJ absolutely crushed the potential for Kuzma with the Lakers. Kuzma was traded to the Washington Wizards this past off-season. He is playing well, but in terms of popularity and player value the Wizards are a far cry from the Lakers. Those Kuzma Silver BGS 9.5s are now going for around $50 each. The likelihood of those cards regaining their 2018 value is extremely slim.
One other major thing that can affect a player’s card value: Injuries. This is a BIG unknown in sports and arguably the biggest reason you cannot bank on a player 100%. Every single player is susceptible to injury and the players that don’t suffer major ones are extremely lucky as it is more rare to NOT sustain an injury over a career. After Zion came back from injury during his rookie season, I heard numerous people make the claim that he is a 100% guaranteed star and the future of the NBA. That might be the biggest bone-head comment to make about a player. Zion is now half-way through his 3rd season and hasn’t stepped foot on the court yet this season due to injury.
A player being traded can be another huge roadblock to higher value/popularity. Much like the Kuzma example I mentioned before, a trade can be the “kiss of death” in hobby terms, depending on the team or situation they are traded to. Carson Wentz being traded to a Playoff Contending Colts team was good for his value while Russell Westbrook being traded to the Washington Wizards was bad for his value.
No player in the sports card world is impervious to a price decline. It can happen to every player out there. Michael Jordan isn’t even playing anymore and his PSA 10 RC went from $900k just 16 months ago now to roughly $300K. Mike Trout’s Update RC PSA 10 was selling for $10,000 and is now $2500-$3500. Mahomes, Brady, LBJ and other key names saw a decrease as well. The market did have a course correction in 2021 on a lot of these bigger name players, but even since then there has been slides. Mahomes prices dropped early in the 2021 season and are just now starting to come back up. LeBron James is down currently due to the Lakers struggles. Joe Burrow prices are up while Justin Herbert prices are down. Jalen Hurts prices are up while Tua prices are down. Often times the rise in value has to come out of one player in order for another to climb.
We live in a world where social media has created prisoners of the moment and in that model, not everyone gains ground. In almost every situation there is a winner and a loser with the loser’s value dipping. After Super Bowl LV where the Tom Brady led Bucs defeated the Patrick Mahomes led Chiefs, Brady’s values soared even higher while Mahomes prices dropped. Think about that for a moment; a 25 year old Super Bowl winning QB and former league MVP’s card prices dropped because he led his team to another league championship game but lost. Sounds pretty ridiculous, right? Imagine buying a Patrick Mahomes Autographed before the Chiefs reached the AFC Championship game, seeing the Chiefs reach the Super Bowl and lose, only to see the value of the card you purchased now selling for less after the Super Bowl than before they even earned that spot.
So we win some, we lose some, right? Yeah that’s a fair assessment except for the losses often times come in much higher volume than the wins. The wins are what you hear the most about because the people you see on social media get excited for a win. They talk about it. They show it off. They are proud of it. We all should be. But those people showing off their win have plenty of black eyes and swollen cheeks just like the rest of us from taking a punch to the face on cards they bought or boxes they ripped. It’s a gamble. Nothing is guaranteed except for the rush involved one way or the other. Take your loss and move on. Take your win as a badge of honor and move on. Combined its what makes this trip so much fun and I sure love it. All of it.
- by Ryan Samuelson
